Atlanta, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

859
FXUS62 KFFC 180553
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1253 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

The forecast remains on track, with only minor modifications to
temperatures and dew points overnight. Rain is presently about to
enter the NW and W central zones and will continue to spread across
the remainder of the area through the night and early morning hours
on Saturday. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Key Messages:

 - Pleasant day today with highs in the 50s and 60s. Enjoy the brief
   respite - winter is coming back with a vengeance next week.

 - Clear day will give way to clouds and rain later tonight into
   tomorrow. Rain amounts between 0.5" and 1" are expected across
   north and central Georgia Saturday into Sunday morning. A rumble
   of thunder will be possible across central Georgia, but no severe
   weather is expect.

Forecast:

Despite having some interesting weather in the short term, I suspect
that very few people will be interested in what is going on. Still,
we start the short term this afternoon with very pleasant
temperatures in the 50s and 60s and mostly clear skies. Enjoy this
day while it lasts, because it may be the last clear, warm day for at
least the next week (see long term below). Dry air has mixed in from
aloft pretty efficiently despite having little in the way of winds
today, which has caused dewpoints to tank. Too late to issue any kind
of Fire Danger Statement, but do take care out there if you decide
to do any burning as it is pretty dry.

Surface low pressure has already started to form out ahead of
shortwave that is ejecting into the southern Great Plains and will
quickly progress east this evening. Low will begin to pull in and tap
into better moisture as it moves east, and rain is expected to
overspread the CWA later tonight into tomorrow morning as the system
moves by. Connection with the subtropical jet lingers through the day
on Friday, allow for some showers to remain in many areas through
the day. Into the evening and overnight, larger wave will dig into
the eastern CONUS as part of the polar jet and give a bit of a kick
to this system, enhancing PVA and allowing new low to form to the
east. Some additional rain will be possible with this, and can`t rule
out seeing some light wintry precip early Sunday morning.

Overall this system looks tame - rainfall amounts between 0.5" to 1"
can be expected (which is in line with HREF PMM) through Sunday
morning. Can`t rule out an isolated higher amount, especially if we
can realize the limited instability that is in place. Also with that
limited instability (model mean MUCAPE around 250 J/kg Saturday
evening), can`t rule out a very isolated rumble of thunder or two. No
severe weather expected.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Highlights:

 - Rainfall ending Sunday morning and a small chance for flurries
   across far North GA Sunday afternoon and evening.

 - High confidence in frigid temperatures next week

 - The potential remains for wintry precipitation between the
   Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe

Rain will be exiting the area at the start of the long term (Sunday)
and some lingering wrap around moisture may be enough to squeeze out
some wintry precip (mix) during the early morning and/or a few
flurries across parts of North GA - particularly the highest
elevations. No significant or impactful accumulations are expected.
Behind this system, Arctic high pressure will infiltrate the region
and as a result temperatures will plummet...

Confidence remains high regarding dangerously cold temperatures
early next and persisting through at least mid-week. The forecast
area will remain situated at the base of a very broad 500mb trough
with a strong arctic high slowly taking up residence across much of
the Southern/Southeast US. This will result in very dry, cold
conditions to persist through at least mid-week. Right now, Monday
morning appears to be the coldest morning with forecast low
temperatures in the teens to low 20s -- (single digits likely at the
highest elevations of northeast GA). Though breezy winds, which have
increased slightly with this forecast package, will act to make it
feel even colder -- forecast apparent temperatures (`feels like
temperature`) for Monday morning in the single digits to near zero
for locations along and north of the I20/I85 corridor. So yes, quite
frigid indeed. Daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday will range
from the mid 20s to low 40s areawide with forecast low temperatures
in the teens to low 20s. Cold weather products are highly likely to
be issued for portions of the area early next week and Extreme Cold
Products are certainly not out of the question particularly across
far North GA.

Finally, the thing on everyone`s mind -- will another winter storm
impact portions of North and Central Georgia? We do have a few
updates with this forecast package...

-Primary inconsistencies among model guidance (deterministic and
ensemble) continue to be the placement and track of the Gulf low. As
we know here in the south, placement of upper level/surface features
as well as moisture can make or break a winter wx forecast and is
really what leads to the difficulties surrounding it. Latest GFS
continues to keep a more southerly Gulf Low track (i.e. less winter
potential for our area), the EURO is still the middle ground, and
Canadian more on the higher end (i.e. better winter potential for
our area). *See previous long term discuss for more in-depth details.

-There is slightly better consensus in narrowing down the timeframe
of this potential event -- sometime between Tuesday to Wednesday but
again high uncertainty remains as far as exact timing, locations,
and amounts. **IF precipitation falls, there is a high likelihood of
impacts given how cold we are expected to be + temperatures during
the day may be colder than currently forecast IF wintry
precipitation is falling.

-Regardless of winter precip --  DANGEROUSLY cold temperatures are
HIGHLY likely next week. Please prepare now for a prolonged period
of frigid/below normal temperatures. Remember the 4 P`s: Pipes,
plants, pets, and people!

The pieces of this potential winter weather puzzle will continue to
come together in the coming days. So stay tuned for details
including exactly what, where, and how much...

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Showers have begun to spread into northwest Georgia and are
expected to become widespread over the ATL metro area between
08-12Z this morning. The highest intensity of rain is expected to
be over this time window as well, with showers becoming lighter
once again after sunrise. Ceilings are currently VFR, but are
expected to lower to MVFR around 08Z, and further to IFR by 13-14Z
this morning. Lingering showers will be scattered in coverage this
afternoon, coming to an end this evening. Brief improvement to
MVFR may be possible after 20Z, but will be short- lived. IFR
ceilings are anticipated to redevelop shortly after sunset. Winds
will be primarily S to SE at 4-8 kts throughout the day, becoming
light and variable after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing of ceilings and precipitation.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          42  52  18  35 /  50  10   0   0
Atlanta         38  47  16  30 /  40   0   0   0
Blairsville     31  42   7  25 /  50  20   0   0
Cartersville    35  44  13  29 /  40   0   0   0
Columbus        43  52  20  37 /  50   0   0   0
Gainesville     40  49  16  32 /  50  10   0   0
Macon           46  56  20  37 /  50  10   0   0
Rome            34  41  14  29 /  40   0   0   0
Peachtree City  38  48  16  32 /  40   0   0   0
Vidalia         55  63  25  41 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...King