Atlanta, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

715
FXUS62 KFFC 110728
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Key Messages:

 - A Flood Watch has been issued for west central Georgia.

 - Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches and isolated totals over 4
   inches are expected by Monday evening.

 - There are multiple opportunities for severe weather through
   Monday, including a small risk for nocturnal tornadoes
   tonight.

Overall Weather Pattern:

A cutoff upper level low will continue to spin over LA/MS/AK through
Monday. Southerly flow east of the low will remain robust as it
pushes Gulf moisture northwards into Georgia and leads to
additional shower and thunderstorm activity. Several weak
shortwaves should rotate around the parent low and these may
serve as focal points for enhanced convection in Georgia. The
first of these shortwaves should traverse Georgia this afternoon,
leading to increased rain and thunderstorm coverage. A second wave
will arrive in the state tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorm
activity will be possible with both waves (see below for details).
The high moisture content of the atmosphere (PW values between
1.3 and 1.8 inches) and prolonged nature of the rain event should
lead to widespread rainfall totals in the 1-3 inch range by Monday
evening. Isolated rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches will be
possible. This could lead to some localized flooding concerns.

Temperatures through Monday should continue to be significantly
influenced by the cloud cover and rainfall. Wedging in the lee of
the Appalachians will also be a factor, especially in northern
Georgia where it will lead to continued CAA at the surface. To
account for the wedge we have lowered expected high temperatures
below the 50th percentile of the NBM in northern Georgia. This
places today`s forecast high temperatures for Atlanta in the
upper 60s and Monday`s highs in the lower 70s. Similarly mild
weather will continue in the rest of north and central Georgia as
well. Overall high temperatures should be 6 to 12 degrees below
seasonal averages this afternoon and 2 to 6 degrees below average
on Monday. Cloud cover and high humidity will keep overnight low
temperatures warmer than average (by 2 to 8 degrees). Leading to
widespread morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s both days.

Expected Rainfall & Flooding Concerns:

As noted above, widespread rainfall totals between 1 and 3 inches
are expected through Monday, with localized totals potentially
exceeding 4 inches. This could produce some localized flooding,
especially if any thunderstorms train over the same region. One
area of potential concern is west central Georgia where 1-3 inches
of rain on Saturday has saturated soils and lowered 3 hour flash
flood guidance (2-3 inches). In coordination with our neighboring
NWS offices we went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for this area
through Monday morning. Elsewhere in the state the risk for flash
flooding is lower due to less soil saturation. As rainfall totals
continue to climb, rising river and stream levels are likely.
Some minor to moderate river flooding could begin to by Monday.

The Severe Weather Threat:

Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity and potential severe
weather are possible through Monday. The initial area of concern
will be in central Georgia (Macon southward) between noon and 6 PM
today. A shortwave moving north will increase lift while diurnal
heating should lead to 750-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Unidirectional
shear profiles, 700-500 mb lapse rate below 6 C/km and saturated
soundings suggest that downburst winds driven by precipitation
loading will be the main threat during this period. Severe weather
is unlikely in north Georgia through this evening due to a stable
boundary layer induced by the wedge.

A second shortwave will move through tonight and early Monday
morning. CAM guidance is suggesting better lapse rates (6.5-7.2
C/km) and turning of the low level winds ahead of this feature.
Combine this with some instability (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and STP
values in the 1-4 range, and the potential exists for low topped
supercells. If this setup develops then a couple of brief
nocturnal tornado spin-ups can`t be ruled out. The best tornado
potential looks like it would be in west central Georgia between
midnight and 6 AM. Damaging winds gusts or marginally severe hail
could also occur.

Additional scattered thunderstorm activity is possible during the
day on Monday. Forcing for lift during this period appears unfocused
and this makes pining down areas with the greatest severe risk
difficult. Environmental conditions look favorable for a couple
stronger storms and some potential for damaging winds, hail or a
brief tornado should exist.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Key Messages:

 - Multiple days of cloudy and rainy weather, with thunderstorms
   possible each afternoon. A few storms could become strong to
   severe.

 - River flooding concerns may develop through the middle of the
   week.

Expecting precipitation to continue into the extended periods. The
vertically stacked low center will be over the lower MS river valley
Mon evening as it begins to push NE through Tue morning. Strong mid-
level S to SW flow will still be present across the SERN U.S.
bringing gulf moisture across GA. This will lead to multiple days of
intermittent rainfall, cloudy skies, and cooler than normal
temperatures. Rainfall totals through the period will be a
widespread 1 to 3 inches, bringing 5 day event totals closer to the
3 to 5 range with some isolated 6inch totals. The higher totals will
be favored over central and east-central Georgia, with the lower end
amounts across northern Georgia. Thunderstorms each afternoon will
be possible with some storms being strong to severe on Tuesday as
the main low center finally moves into the Mid-Atlantic States.

With the continued rainfall from the short term through the middle
of the week we could see some flooding concerns especially along and
near the Flint, Ocmulgee, Oconee, Altamaha, and Ogeechee Rivers.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, the low should be well into the New
England states, bringing drier air into the region. A notable
warming trend will take place by the end of the week, with highs
reaching the 80s Thursday to near 90 and possibly to mid 90s
Friday/Saturday.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025

LIFR and IFR ceilings (300-900 ft AGL) will continue in north and
central Georgia through 14Z Sunday. Some improvement towards a mix
of IFR and MVFR (ceilings 600-1500 ft AGL) conditions is possible
between 14Z Sunday and 03Z Monday. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms will continue through 18Z Monday. Thunderstorms are
most likely between 17Z Sunday and 01Z Monday, and between 06Z and
12Z Monday. Winds will continue to be from the east with
occasional gusts in the 18 to 24 kt range between 14Z and 23Z
Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the continuation of IFR conditions or worse
at ATL through 00Z Monday.
High confidence in continued east winds.
Low confidence in the timing of any thunderstorms.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  62  73  60 /  90  90  90  70
Atlanta         69  63  76  61 / 100  90  80  70
Blairsville     66  58  68  56 /  70  90 100  80
Cartersville    71  61  77  59 /  80  90  80  80
Columbus        74  63  79  60 /  90  80  70  30
Gainesville     67  62  71  60 /  90 100  90  80
Macon           76  63  80  61 / 100  90  80  50
Rome            73  61  76  59 /  80  80  80  70
Peachtree City  70  62  77  59 / 100  90  80  60
Vidalia         76  66  80  64 / 100  90  90  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for GAZ078>080-089>093-
102>106-108.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Albright